Just wanted to tell you what we are hearing, on the ground, from this spring's famous Canton (Guangzhou) Trade Fair.  In the fall, we reported that attendance at that one was down about one-third from spring 2008.  This spring it appears, from the reports that we have heard from people, that attendance is down by about one-half or more from last year.

On one of the first day's of the show, we ate at a local Indian restaurant, in our neighborhood, which also has a lot of Western restaurants and hotels, and it is where a lot of trade show people come to dinner or stay.  We sat with a man who was a seller at the fair, and he told us that on the first day by 9:30 in the morning the only people at the fair were those with booths: no buyers.  This weekend, we again went to the Indian restaurant, and it was empty, suggesting that many people did not even stay for the second week.  We also heard similar reports from our contacts at the hotels that are usually booked by trade fair goers.

From our discussions with other people, in the know, and from other reports that we have seen, locally, it appears that even those people who did place orders reduced their dollar values by about 80 to 90 percent, this year compared to last year, and the focus has gone from higher tech to very low tech.

Not a good sign for China exports.

You can read more about our thoughts on the China Export market ,in our recent article on buzzle.com at http://www.buzzle.com/articles/china-exports-purchasing-power-arbitrage.html